Emerging Technologies and Global Politics Project
The Emerging Technologies and Global Politics Project at Perry World House is researching how a new generation of technologies is shaping global affairs, from how economies and societies function to the way that militaries will operate.
This interdisciplinary, multi-method effort is led by Director and Richard Perry Professor Michael C. Horowitz and is composed of research teams studying the intersection of emerging technologies and global politics across a variety of different research areas. These include:
- investigating what influences the willingness of the public and national security elites to adopt emerging technologies;
- studying how emerging technologies will influence strategic stability and deterrence;
- the potential for using confidence building measures (CBMs) to reduce the risk of accidental or inadvertent conflicts due to emerging technologies;
- and evaluating how general purpose technologies influence economic and military power more generally.
Outputs
A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods
By Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, and Jared Rosen
As the National Intelligence Council begins to develop a new crowdsourced probabilistic geopolitical forecasting platform, Perry World House has released a new report exploring what this platform should look like, drawing on interviews with experts from the national security community.
Keeping Score: A New Approach to Geopolitical Forecasting
By Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren A. Kahn, and Christian Ruhl
This white paper proposes a novel approach to developing forecasts about geopolitics and global crises. The authors argue that by using rigorous crowdsourced methods, the U.S. government will be better able to know what lies ahead and how to prepare to meet the future’s challenges and opportunities.
The Immigration Preferences of Top AI Researchers
By Remco Zwetsloot, Baobao Zhang, Markus Anderljung, Michael C. Horowitz and Allan Dafoe
Artificial intelligence (AI) talent is global. AI researchers and engineers come from, and are in high demand, around the world. So how do they decide where to work? Given the global nature of demand, countries and companies trying to recruit AI talent face immense competition. In order to understand current and prospective flows of talent, researchers at Perry World House and the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute have investigated what drives AI researchers’ immigration decisions and preferences, with a survey of more than 500 researchers.
When AI is in control, who’s to blame for military accidents?, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
By Julia Ciocca and Lauren Kahn
Military accidents happen. They’re an accepted aspect of international politics, and political and military leaders often cite human error as a cause. Relations stabilize and both sides move on. But as militaries invest in new technologies and move into an era when machines, not generals or pilots, take on more decision-making, a new risk—that accidents won’t be resolved so neatly in the future—has emerged.
The Future of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: A Role for Confidence-Building Measures? Orbis
By Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn, and Casey Mahoney
As militaries around the world seek to gain a strategic edge over their adversaries by integrating AI innovations into their arsenals, how can members of the international community effectively reduce the unforeseen risks of this technological competition?
Policy Roundtable: Artificial Intelligence and International Security, Texas National Security Review
Chaired by Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn and Christian Ruhl
The articles in this roundtable represent analyses from panelists at our 2019 Global Order Colloquium, exploring how emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) are changing international politics.
Cyber Norms Processes at a Crossroads, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
By Wyatt Hoffman, Duncan Hollis, and Christian Ruhl
As cyber insecurity has become a growing problem worldwide, states and other stakeholders have sought to increase stability for cyberspace. As a result, a new ecosystem of “cyber norm” processes has emerged in diverse fora and formats. This paper builds on conversations at our workshop on cyberspace and geopolitics in fall 2019, where experts assessed the various cyber norm processes both individually and collectively.
The AI Literacy Gap Hobbling American Officialdom, War on the Rocks
By Michael C. Horowitz and Lauren Kahn
As the technology advances, military personnel, policymakers, and intelligence analysts will need to adapt to and learn the basics of AI. A renewed emphasis on AI education for those that will make key decisions about programs, funding, and adoption is essential for safe and effective U.S. adoption of AI in the national security sphere.
Artificial intelligence: the case for international cooperation, IISS Survival
By Elina Noor
As political and strategic tensions are likely to intensify around technological developments such as AI, Elina Noor argues that context, communication and cooperation are critical to ensuring that AI develops as a force for good.
Imagining the AI future, IISS Survival
By Amandeep Singh Gill
AI has the potential to bring profound change to nearly every aspect of modern life. For Ambassador Amandeep Singh Gill, more needs to be done now to establish rigorous and trusted regulatory frameworks that encourage practices that develop ‘AI for Good’ in the future.
Mapping the terrain: AI governance and the future of power, IISS Survival
By Andrew Imbrie
The adoption of AI will transform the global economy and international politics. In this piece, Andrew Imbrie explores the different ways AI may develop in the future and how governance structures will need to adapt accordingly.