Changes to U.S. Foreign Policy and Responses by the Indo-Pacific Actors

On March 30, 2026, Perry World House convened scholar, policymakers, and practitioners to examine how governments and militaries across the Indo-Pacific are responding to shifting U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration.

While the Indo-Pacific region remains the United States’ stated central theater of long-term strategic competition, the dynamics of that competition are shifting under Washington’s inconsistent strategy towards the People’s Republic of China and fragmented regional foreign policy. The Trump administration’s focus on revitalizing American manufacturing by instituting tariffs on allies, partners, and competitors alike has undermined the region’s confidence in U.S. economic and military commitments, while adversaries continue to challenge Washington’s interests. Despite these uncertainties, U.S. technological supremacy and nuclear stability are likely to persist.

U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly questioned, but not yet replaced. Meanwhile, Beijing assesses that while its strength and leverage over the Trump administration have increased, it faces a progressively less stable and more hostile regional environment. U.S. allies and partners are not ready to embrace Beijing as a security partner, nor is it ready to fully hedge against atrophied U.S. cooperation. The short-tern future will likely result in a continued regional emphasis on minilateral groupings, through which countries—including or excluding Washington or Beijing—can opt in to cooperate on specific issues without the trappings of alliance management and guarantees.

In this context, how can the United States restore strong partnerships, strengthen its regional defense strategy, preserve its technological primacy, and safeguard nuclear stability? The findings and recommendations for addressing these questions form the basis of this policy brief.